Coakley in the coal mine
Mr. Obama has asked his former campaign manager, David Plouffe, to oversee House, Senate and governor’s races to stave off a hemorrhage of seats in the fall. The president ordered a review of the Democratic political operation — from the White House to party committees — after last week’s Republican victory in the Massachusetts Senate race, aides said.
-Zeleny/Baker, New York Times, 1/24
Martha Coakley lost a Senate seat because she was tone-deaf, her campaign failed on messaging, and pollsters had bad numbers…or so the story goes. However, Coakley’s defeat - which effectively froze health care legislation and plunged Democrats into immediate despair - could be the best thing to happen to the party long-term.
Provocative-yet-unverifiable statement? Totally. But setting aside the high-stakes consequences (for a bit), consider that the Mass. race provided Democrats with a potential preview of this fall’s midterm elections - and awarded the White House carte blanche to steer campaign strategy until then.
The latter may seem redundant; Obama isn’t merely the nation’s leader, but the Democrats’ highest-ranking official, too. However, a president often struggles to impose his will on other members of the party, as the too-lengthy health care debate shows. Notably, Coakley had rebuffed White House aid for her campaign, fearing it would paint her as a Washington insider, and the administration acquiesced until it was too late.
Coakley’s strategic mistakes wouldn’t have happened had David Plouffe been her tactician, Democrats acknowledge - and now, the entire party will benefit from his leadership. Plouffe’s memoir, “Audacity to Win” - and to a lesser extent, this Esquire piece - reveals amazing discipline and organizational strengths, as well as diligent and appropriate use of polling. The president says Plouffe ran the best campaign in history…another provocative and totally unprovable claim, but one that’s widely backed (if occasionally dismissed).
Plouffe also is something of a risk-taker, having signed-off on candidate Obama’s unprecedented overseas trip, and now advocates a bold strategy that aligns with many liberal Democrats’ concerns. His manifesto is essentially outlined in a Washington Post editorial: Get health care done, start focusing on jobs, communicate better, ensure turnout.
Adding Plouffe to the fold is somewhat of a patch, of course. Democrats seem certain to suffer losses this fall, per off-cycle tradition, and having campaign strategy routed through the White House won’t eliminate all factionalism. However, centralizing authority with Plouffe will allow for a more-coordinated attack in the vein of (if differing in tone and substance from) Karl Rove’s successful 2002 push.
In the meantime, the loss of 60 Senate votes is a tremendous blow to Obama’s legislative agenda, and a likely death knell for the current health care bill, which was - Heidi Montag-like - dissected, revamped, and heavily debated ad nauseam.
Still, Democrats retain huge majorities in the House and Senate until January 2011, at minimum. While they’re now exposed to the rising use of the Senate filibuster, the party is still able to introduce and shape bills as befits a majority. Meanwhile, some of independents’ backlash against Democrats has been rooted in unease at the party’s filibuster-proof majority; that argument may vanish if Obama can somehow win Republican support for several major pieces of legislation.
An interesting, if less-trafficked criticism is that the Coakley campaign wasn’t digitally savvy enough, whereas online tools helped Scott Brown gain ground. Plouffe has spoken at length about the value of using social media, online video, and data warehousing; it will be intriguing to watch if Democrats’ overall strategy toward the Web shifts, too.

I’m sorry Dan - all I see is “blah blah blah Heidi Montag blah blah.”
Seriously though, insightful post.